Some might find this information interesting. While I haven't verified all the information contained in the video, it has raised some interesting questions in my own mind. The video is part of an entire movie that contains issues of religion, world wars, etc. This particular section begins a discussion of the international bankers, the FED, and the elite's influence in the financial markets.
This is just Part 1 of the financial part. I'll try to post the other links later.
PLEASE REMEMBER THIS IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY!
Greetings Everyone,
Once again, we come across another tool that is very familiar to most, but the settings, application, and interaction with other tools / indicators is usually met with…HUH! So first of all, what are Bollinger Bands and how did they get started.
Bollinger Bands were created by John Bollinger who is the President and founder of Bollinger Capital Management. Mr. Bollinger’s site can be reached at www.bollingerbands.com. If you want to read the book directly from the author, you can find it here: Bollinger on Bollinger Bands
According to Mr. Bollinger, the origins of Bollinger bands started with trading bands. Well that’s great, what are trading bands. In this session, we will look at trading bands, in the following sessions; we will get more into Bollinger. Trading bands are merely a group of lines that usually encompass the majority of price action over a given time-frame. For example, the chart below shows how the price action on a given time frame is enclosed in a price envelope. The chart was formed by using a combination of the MA.B or Moving Average Bands tool and a simple moving average.
The first step in creating the chart was to first determine what moving average I wanted to include. The one I randomly chose was the 20 day simple moving average close. This gives me the green line in the center of the chart. The second step was to overlay the moving average bands. The moving average bands were also set to the close for a period of 20 days and a plus 5% and -5% for the band width. The percentages for the MA.B are a matter of preference, but to make the bands look correct, the periods should be the same. Here are the properties boxes for the Simple Moving Average followed by the properties box of the Moving Average Bands.
Simple Moving Average Properties
Moving Average Bands Properties
So what have we created? We have created two parallel lines that are a set percentage distance from the moving average. This does not mean that we have to make the parallel line equal in distance because we could easily go back to the Moving Average Bands properties box and adjust the Top or Bottom percent field to our individual preferences. Here is an example with the Top percent field remaining at 5% while the bottom has been reduced to 2 %.
Trading Bands with Reduced Lower Percentage Band
Ok, now that we have Trading Bands out of the way, how is Bollinger different than Trading bands, and how can I use it. For now, Bollinger Bands calculate the distance of the bands from the moving average based upon Standard Deviation. Standard Deviation! Oh no, what have I gotten myself into. Continued in Part 2
Later Fibonacci
PLEASE REMEMBER THIS IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY!
Primalgreed.com - BESTBUY, that's not what I wanted! Part 1
Monday, February 5, 2007
PLEASE REMEMBER THIS IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY!
Greetings all,
Well it’s time for a losing play. We can’t always win at everything…even though we want too. One lesson that took me a long time to realize is that losses is part of trading, and if you aren’t willing to take losses than you shouldn’t be trading. The psychology of trading can be a love/hate relationship; it can give you peace of mind or drive you loco. The most important part, to me, is to prepare for the losses before I place a trade. This is where a written down or charted risk/reward can give you some guidance, and keep you from make an emotional decision (well, most of the time). Let’s move on.
From the Profitsource precomputed scans on 01-29-07, I came across Best Buy BBY. If your not a borderline techgeek like myself, and don’t know who BBY is, check out their profile here: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=bby&x=0&y=0. BBY was listed as a possible Wave 4 Sell, but it was listed as a watch indicator vs. a trigger indicator on the precomputed list. If you’re unfamiliar with the difference, you can look through your Profitsource manual, search your help manual, or view a previous post here:Previous Post For right now, here is the basic chart from 01-29 07:
The chart seemed to pass a couple of tests at the time I placed the trade, but looking back at it, the oscillator just doesn’t seem right. Usually I like to see the oscillator moving closer to the zero line around or before the Wave 4 peak. Also, the price chart seems to be in an elongated sideways pattern between Wave 3 and 01-29-07. The TAPP shows a projected range of $45.22 by Feb 6, 07, and the Range Projector is showing a possible move to $44.85. The $44.85 level from the Range Projector has a shortest timeframe of 02-08-07, an average timeframe of 02-12-07, and the longest timeframe of 02-21-07. For those unfamiliar with the timeframe of the Range Projector, it is the vertical tick across the range projector. I will post something later with more details.
Since my 20/20 rear-view goggles are working on that oscillator, let’s look at a weekly chart from the same date. Hmm…in hindsight, the weekly chart actually looks better than the daily. It seems as if there are some Fibonacci ratios being satisfied in this chart. Lets take a look to see if anything pops up:
Taking the Fibonacci Retracement tool, we can see that the price action had dropped through the 61.8% range at the end of December, but there was also a big drop around July/August. I wonder what it’s Retracement might be. Let’s take a look at the next screenshot:
The recent low from July to the 01-29-06 seems to be confirming another direction as well. Let’s stew on that for a while, there’s a market moving somewhere!
PLEASE REMEMBER THIS IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY!
Greetings all,
Using ProfitSource, I first came across DHI on 1/12/07. For those of your unfamiliar with the company, DR Horton is a homebuilding/financing company listed on the NYSE. For a company profile you can look here:
What is interesting to me, is that the media has been bombarding our senses with the doom and gloom of the real estate market for quite awhile. I've always been a "against the masses" type of guy, but I've also made the mistake of being "against the general market". Here lies the dilemma. Do I really think the housing market is all doom and gloom, or do I think the big boys are looking at opportunity. For now, here's the chart I saw on 01/12/07:
For me, I don't feel frisky about pulling up a precomputed scan, selecting a risk to reward ratio that's acceptable and then placing the trade. I think their are several questions that need to be asked before moving forward.
1. I know that Profitsouce will pull up these scans by criteria already set, but I still like to confirm these criteria by hand. At the very least, it allows you to become more familiar with the software tools.
2. Before I go through all that business, "THE PICTURE" still has to be right (i would say feel right, but that has got me in trouble before). In my experience, the closer the chart looks like a true Elliott wave pattern, the closer it seems to be in reality. All those charts with huge swings, gaps up and down, etc have their place, but that volatility thing can make or break ya. There's nothing worse than seeing a trade that goes in the intended direction, but the option's price is stagnant or decreases. Being primarily an option trader Volatility has become my best friend and my worst enemy. And since I'm looking at this from the biased eyes of an option's trader, I still have to pull up a risk graph from another source to see if it's Picture is inline with my overall strategy.
3. What is the long term picture looking like. It's great to take a snapshot of few weeks of data, but where has the price been before. This is always important to analyze points of support and resistance. It also lets you get an idea of how big a swing will effect the price based on past events, earnings, news, upgrades, downgrades, etc. The first chart was a daily graph from a small time frame and the next chart is the weekly view over several years.
Notice how the wave patterns for the long-term and short term are strikingly different.
4. Wow, did you notice the TAPP's. The first screen shot cut it off, but its 29.05 by March 14,2007. The weekly chart has a TAPP of 16.03 by August 10,2007. Well which way is it going to go, thats a range of 13.02. Maybe none, maybe both. I do know that once you start applying the range projector tool, the tool itself will have no directional bias in its forecasting. Don't take my word for it, check out the Profitsouce tutorials and they will say the same thing. So if we go back to the original daily chart we can have two possible targets to view. Look to the left:
5. Overlaying the 21, 50, and 200 SMA, you can see several different results. I would classify myself as a short to mid-term trader so the 21 day SMA works fine for me. This allows me to get a feel of the short term movement over the last 3 weeks. The 50/200 SMA is one I almost always use primarily because everyone else does. Sometimes, it feels as though the 50/200 SMA becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy... at least in the short-term. Whether it truly predicts the price movement in the long-term is less important to me than whether the majority of investors BELIEVE it predicts the price movement. If the antelope herd is being chased up hill by a lion, so be it...even if the lion turns out to be a....monkey..no...a giraffe...no...probably another ANTELOPE. You can also see that the EBOT has been satisfied. Here's the view:
6. I had mentioned earlier about confirmation of the EW pattern early. Next we will confirm that the that the ratios look right. Just a side note: I always like to perform a custom Data on Demand of a least 5 years to make sure my data doesn't have any holes in it. Well, how much should Wave 4 Pull back, and what tool can I use. For the EW4B Pattern, the range is usually between 24-62%. I use two different tools to perform the confirmation and you can use either one. The first one is the Fibonacci Retracement tool and the second is the Wave extension tool. The first screen shot includes the tools, the other two represent the final display of the two tools, and how they look a little different.
Fibonacci Retracement Tool and Wave Extension Tool in the Drawing tools Menu
Application of Fibonacci Retracement Tool on Price Chart
I thought it might be interesting to look back at a position that has been one of patience. Usually, this type of patience is more than I'm willing to wait. I don't usually see myself as a long-term investor, more like a short to mid-term trader.
When I first looked at this position, I have to admit, I really didn't know who they where, what they did, etc. Of course, why does "knowing what they do and who they are" mean anything to the technical trader? To some it does, to others it doesn't. For me, I like to know a little something about the company (at least it doesn't make you look like a fool if someone asks you about it).
I did read up a little on the company. Went to their website, looked at the SEC reports, scanned for insider transactions, then it was on to the charts and indicators.
Lets go into my ProfitSource now. Although I have a chart saved with all the relevant info from back then, I thought it might help myself and maybe others to show some progressive steps. Here we go.
Here is a current shot of the software, but I want to look back to the date I first started looking at the position. In order to do that, I need to change the date in the software from the current date.
For those of you still moving around in ProfitSource, the field is highlighted in the screen shot. All you need to do is Uncheck the "Use current data" checkbox, click on the drop down arrow after the date, and select which date you want to go back to. I first started looking at this position on 10-16-06, so we will change it to that.
Now that the date has been changed, we can see that STZ is listed under a Wave 4 Buy signal. This is the first day that STZ appeared on the the precomputed list of ProfitSource. Pre-computed you say, yes precomputed. HUBB, the providers of ProfitSource, provide scans of the entire market for Elliott wave set-ups. When I say provide, I mean that all the data can be downloaded without you having to do the scans yourself. This does not always give the best results, but it doesn't always give the worst either. Like I send in a previous post, "Elliott Wave is not the only thing" so don't think its your pathway to riches. It is just another indicator that has helped me understand the market. More times than not, I am overlaying Elliott wave with other indicators. Note: Watch out for overlaying...it can drive your eyes buggy.
